Transportation Research Students “Question
Everything” with the Help of @RISK – and Decide on Answers
In Denmark, where gas costs around €1.65/liter ($9 USD/gallon), planners have to make transportation as efficient as possible.
For Kim Bang Salling, Ph.D., assistant professor at the Technical University of Denmark, that means teaching graduate students in his “Risk Analysis and Decision Support” class to question everything when reviewing a transportation project. For example, are planners are being too optimistic about the project’s benefits? Are they underestimating the costs?
“We use @RISK software to create probability distributions based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions,” Dr. Salling says. “The software also allows us to use Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertain elements into our decision-support model.”
Dr. Salling has been using @RISK since 2003 when he was working on his master’s degree in engineering. What’s more, @RISK supports the decision-support tool he created when defending his Ph.D. thesis titled, “Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support,” in November 2008. “This software is intuitive and easy to apply to transportation research and transportation planning,” he says.
So easy, in fact, it’s being incorporated into an academic project that stretches from Denmark to New Jersey.
“Our department is undertaking a large scale research project in collaboration with Aalborg University (Denmark), Princeton University and Oxford University that investigates uncertainties within transport project evaluation,” Dr. Salling says. “The project seeks to appraise the specific uncertainties within transport demand and transport models in general.”
Funded by the Danish Strategic Research Council, the project runs through mid-2013.
» More about how @RISK is used at the Centre for Traffic
[@RISK] software is intuitive and easy to
apply to transportation research and
Dr. Kim Bang Salling, Department of Transport,
Technical University of Denmark
Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2010, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:
US and Canada:
Illinois Institute of Technology
Northern Arizona University
Penn State University
Southern Utah University
Texas A&M University
Thunderbird School of Global Mgmt
University of Maryland
University of Michigan
University of Oklahoma
University of Texas at Austin
University of Texas at Dallas
Université du Québec Outaouais
US Coast Guard Academy
||Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Universite de Bretagne Occidentale - ESMISAB (France)
Frankfurt School of Finance & Management GmbH (Germany)
Centros Culturales de México, A.C. (Mexico)
Universidad Anahuac (Mexico)
Technische Universiteit Delft (Netherlands)
AGH University of Science & Technology (Poland)
Hoegskolan i Gaevle (Sweden)
Bournemouth University (UK)
City University London (UK)
University of Southampton (UK)
University of West London (UK)
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network lab and laptop installation.
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Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
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Get DecisionTools Suite 5.7 for your course by contacting:
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Palisade's DecisionTools Suite
continues to represent an integral
component of my Decision Sciences courses.
I have enjoyed showing my students how to
build effective, relevant and realistic models
using this easy-to-understand software. In
particular, PrecisionTree has enabled my
students to create decision trees within a
spreadsheet environment. Nodes and
branches can be inserted quickly and
efficiently. The variety of sensitivity
analyses available within this package
(tornado charts, two-way sensitivity regions,
and so forth) provides my students with the
opportunity to understand model results.
Dr. Keith A. Willoughby, Dept. of Management,
The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.
Using Simulation to Model an Acquisition
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade
Suppose we are considering purchasing a firm. The cash flows from the firm are highly uncertain. Future cash flows depend on many uncertain parameters such as Sales growth, Gross margin, SG&A expenses, Variations in Working Capital, Litigation Liability, and Terminal Value of firm. As the following example will show, simulation is well suited to modeling the uncertainty involved in a potential acquisition. Our example is based on Razaire (1995).
Download the example spreadsheet and step-by-step instructions
The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.
Practical Management Science - Spreadsheet Modeling and Applications
By Wayne Winston and Dr. Chris Albright
This text takes an active-learning approach, providing numerous examples and problems so students can practice extensively with a concept before moving on. Four types of problems (skill-building, skill-extending, modeling, and cases) are graded within sections and chapters to help instructors assign homework. The text integrates modeling into all functional areas of business -- finance, marketing, operations management -- using real examples and real data. Examples utilize @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, and more. The text emphasizes modeling over algebraic formulations and memorization of particular models. Shell files are also provided so that instructors can give students as much or as little information as they need.
This edition has been updated for Excel 2010.
» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software
The bottom line is, with @RISK by Palisade,
we can now quantify economic uncertainty
with considerable insight. The analytics in
@RISK are up front, available, and flexible
enough to provide me with everything I
need. It’s obvious that @RISK is a great
software package for commercial use, but
for us, we see equal value as a teaching
Larry Chorn, Associate Professor of Petroleum
Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.
Information Analysis Using PrecisionTree
By Kan Shao, Mitchell J. Small, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University
A broad view of uncertainty in carcinogenic risk assessment points out that the key steps in cancer risk assessment include a) a determination of whether the agent is carcinogenic in humans; b) estimation of the agent potency within the range of dosage used in an animal study; c) quantitative extrapolation of risk from the test species to humans; and d) high- to low-dose extrapolation to estimate risks for the dose range experienced in the exposed human population.
To support the enumeration of assumption combination and the calculation of associated probabilities, the authors used PrecisionTree (an event/decision tree program in Palisade’s DecisionTools software package). This paper uses PrecisionTree as an example to illustrate the application of commercial software in information analysis for cancer risk assessment.
View the full paper
|The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.
What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.
» Schools using Palisade software
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» Transportation Research
Everything" with the
Help of @RISK
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» Teaching Tips &
Using Simulation to
Model an Acquisition
» Textbook of the Month
Science - Spreadsheet
Modeling and Applications
» Featured White Paper
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Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
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These seminars are designed to show companies and individuals the benefits of using Palisade solutions – and will also show existing customers how the latest releases can add even more value to their business.
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» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
14-15 July, 1pm-5pm ET
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Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
22-23 Sept, 1pm-5pm ET
1-2 December, 11am-3pm ET
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15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET
Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
7 November, 9am-1pm ET
» Live Webcasts
These complimentary sessions are 30-60 minutes, held via web conference. See industry case studies, software demos, applications, and more.
Introduction to @RISK
July 27, 2011, 2:00pm
Modeling Insurance Risk
& Decisions using the DecisionTools Suite
August 18, 2011, 2:00pm
Project Management Risk
Modeling Methods using
the DecisionTools Suite
September 8, 2011, 2:00pm
Modeling Oil & Gas Risk
Problems using the
October 4, 2011, 2:00pm
The Use of @RISK and
Economic Value Added
in Business Valuation
July 13, 2011, 10:00am ET
Economic Value Advisors
Intuitive Project Management
Techniques for @RISK
July 22, 2011, 11:00am ET
RMP, and CQM
Use of Simulation Models in
Pricing Health Insurance and
August 25, 2011, 11:00am ET
Tim Robinson and
Strategy Partners, LLC
Modeling Time Series
Forecasts with @RISK
September 9, 2011,
Eric Torkia, MASc
Partner, Analytics Practice
Technology Partnerz Ltd
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